DENISON, Iowa
Nine months ago, on a frigid winter night, a small group of local Republican leaders gathered at Cronk’s Cafe in this small Iowa town to talk about the presidential campaign. They had a dim view of Newt Gingrich that night.
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Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich has acknowledged receiving personal compensation from Freddie Mac. The former House speaker left open the possibility that his consulting firm received between $1.6 million and $1.8 million. (Nov. 16)
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Arlan Ecklund was outspoken in his criticism of the former House speaker. “I think he’s polarizing,” he said then. “I don’t think he’s electable.” Today, he has changed his mind. “The problems that face our nation are greater than they’ve ever been,” he said. “I believe he’s the one candidate who doesn’t need on-the-job training. . . . I think he is electable, even though he has some baggage.”
Gingrich may be merely the latest fad in the Republican race, following in the footsteps of Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and to some extent Herman Cain. Or, he just might emerge as the strongest challenger to Mitt Romney, if he holds up to the scrutiny better than the others. That will be determined, ultimately, when Iowans meet on Jan. 3 for their precinct caucuses.
At this point, Iowa is wide open, with Gingrich, Cain, Romney and Ron Paul bunched together at the top, according to a new Bloomberg News poll. Iowa GOP activists have watched the race with the same fascination, confusion and occasional dismay as others around the country.
“I don’t know if in past elections that I have changed my way of thinking as many times as I have this year,” Ecklund said. “I’m on about my fourth way of thinking” about who would make the strongest challenger to President Obama.
His wife, Gwen, who chairs the Republican Party in Crawford County, feels the same way. Given her position as a party leader, she has avoided taking sides too publicly but she and her husband both supported Bachmann at the straw poll in Ames in August. If she had to vote today, she said that she would support Gingrich. “He is the one I like listening to the most,” she said. “He is the one who if there was some disaster in our country tomorrow, he’s the one I would feel safest in charge of us.”
In February, The Washington Post assembled two small groups of Iowa activists, one in Crawford County and another in Dallas County, just outside Des Moines. Last week, I came back for an update, meeting with the Denison group again at Cronk’s Cafe and reaching some of those in Dallas County individually.
These groups of party regulars are not in any way a scientific sample of Iowa Republicans. But they are attuned to the shifting sentiments of their friends and neighbors and can explain how their own impressions have been altered by months of watching the candidates up close and on television. They have come around to Gingrich, for now at least, by a process of elimination and by seeing him in a new light.
They looked at Bachmann and found her initially appealing — a firebrand who generated excitement that was lacking in the other candidates. The consensus today is that she is not ready for the Oval Office. They also looked at Rick Perry, but most in these groups found him wanting, particularly in debates. By the time of his “oops” moment, many had already moved on. His road back is steep indeed.
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